четверг, 15 марта 2012 г.

Thousands in Lebanon, Turkey protest Gaza attack

Thousands protesting Israel's ground offensive on Gaza converged Sunday in Beirut and Istangul as the leaders of the only two Mideast Arab nations to sign peace treaties with Israel demanded an end to the attack.

In Yemen, security officials said anti-Israel protesters attacked several Jewish homes in the northern province of Omran, smashing windows and pelting them with rocks. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, said at least one Jewish resident was injured among the tiny minority community.

Lebanese police used water hoses to try to push about 250 demonstrators away from the U.S. Embassy …

Jahn firm denies link to cooling at Illinois Center

An attorney for Helmut Jahn's architectural firm, which helpeddesign the State of Illinois Center, said yesterday the firm "bearsno responsibility" for the building's "cooling and heating systemfailures."

The firm in which Jahn is a partner, Murphy Jahn Associates, wasone of 13 companies sued for $20 million by the state yesterday. Theaction seeks damages primarily for air-conditioning problems that lettemperatures in the modernistic, glass-sheathed structure soar ashigh as 110 degrees.

The internationally known Jahn, credited as chief architect ofthe 17-story structure, could not be reached for comment. Hissecretary said he was "on a plane flying to …

Dozens Injured After Cruise Ship Tilts

PORT CANAVERAL, Fla. - A steering problem caused a new cruise ship to roll abruptly Tuesday, throwing passengers and crew to the deck and injuring dozens, including two critically, officials said.

One passenger said seawater flooded several upper decks of the Crown Princess, forcing water from a swimming pool "like a mini-tsunami."

The vessel, with about 3,100 passengers, had just departed Port Canaveral on Florida's east coast en route to New York when it listed badly to its port side, said Coast Guard spokesman Petty Officer James Judge.

The ship then righted itself before returning to port, where the Coast Guard said all passengers and crew had been accounted …

среда, 14 марта 2012 г.

London's Olympic stadium shell completed

London 2012 organizers say the external structure of the main Olympic stadium has been completed.

Construction of the outer shell, including roof sections, was finished Thursday, 14 months after work started and three years before the start of the games.

The 80,000-seat stadium will host the opening and closing ceremonies and track and field …

A globetrotting woman of mystery

Agatha Christie fans will devour Duchess of Death, a new biography of the mystery matriarch by author Richard Hack.

As Hack points out, Christie sold over 2 billion books translated into 105 languages. Her output was incredible: 90 novels and short-story collections and 157 short stories. Her play "The Mousetrap" has been performed continuously since 1952.

Hack's book is drawn from more than 5,000 unpublished letters, notes and documents. This is not a work for the casual Christie reader -- Duchess of Death is sometimes weighed down by details.

But the dense biography sings when Hack recounts Christie's globetrotting in the waning days of the British Empire. …

ScanMatch: A novel method for comparing fixation sequences

We present a novel approach to comparing saccadic eye movement sequences based on the Needleman-Wunsch algorithm used in bioinformatics to compare DNA sequences. In the proposed method, the saccade sequence is spatially and temporally binned and then recoded to create a sequence of letters that retains fixation location, time, and order information. The comparison of two letter sequences is made by maximizing the similarity score computed from a substitution matrix that provides the score for all letter pair substitutions and a penalty gap. The substitution matrix provides a meaningful link between each location coded by the individual letters. This link could be distance but could also …

WADA wants China's border detection to match high level of Olympic drug-testing facilities

The World Anti-Doping Agency is urging China to ensure its standards for intercepting banned substances matches its testing facilities for drug cheats at the Beijing Olympics.

WADA officials, meeting in Sydney to discuss cross-border investigation powers in the anti-doping fight, have asked Chinese authorities to increase customs and immigration checks to prevent performance-enhancing drugs reaching the Olympics.

The global anti-doping agency was again close to an agreement with international police body Interpol, WADA president John Fahey said.

"We believe that we've got some commonalities, some common purpose ... sometimes there's a belief …

Critical assessments of films currently in theaters

ADAPTATION (Local) What a bewilderingly brilliant and entertainingmovie this is--a confounding story about orchid thieves andscreenwriters, elegant New Yorkers and scruffy swamp rats, truth andfiction. Nicolas Cage stars as the twin screenwriters Charlie andDonald Kaufman, struggling to adapt a book about an orchid thief(Chris Cooper). Meryl Streep plays the author of the book, with whomCharlie becomes obsessed, at about the same time she is attracted tothe smelly but enigmatic thief. Director Spike Jonze and writerCharlie Kaufman earlier made "Being John Malkovich," the best film of1999, and this one is equally playful, audacious and entertaining.Rated R. …

We can't 'sweep' the problem away

We can't `sweep' the problem away

It's back. A new version of the controversial municipal anti-loitering ordinance aimed at gangs and drug sellers that was shot down by the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year.

Although details of the new, rewritten injunction have not yet been made public, we would hope that it meets the needs and specifications of all the parties that it is meant to aid.

The previous proposal was far too ill-conceived and capricious. U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor even wrote that it was vague and did not provide to the public adequate notice of what was and was not against the law.

It required police officers to disperse any …

North Korea to resume nuclear dismantlement

North Korea planned to resume dismantling its nuclear program Tuesday for the first time in two months, days after the United States removed the communist regime from a terrorism blacklist as a reward under a disarmament pact.

Pyongyang has told the International Atomic Energy Agency that it would restart work to disable the Yongbyon nuclear reactor and allow international inspectors to resume their activity. The plans were outlined in a restricted document to the agency's 35 board members that was obtained by The Associated Press.

Separately, IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said agency inspectors "will also now be permitted to reapply the containment and …

Someday you may feed meter by phone

Motorists who fight for the 30,514 parking spaces on Chicagostreets -- and feed the meters or pay-and-display boxes -- may soonhave an alternative: paying for parking by phone.

The brave new world of parking technology is about to enter a newera in Chicago: "mobile payment systems."

The Daley administration has issued a so-called "request forinformation" about new technology that would allow motorists to dowhat has become commonplace in Europe and Asia.

Instead of carrying coins, cash or credit cards, they set up anaccount, similar to I-Pass. For a nominal fee, they buy a beeperlikedevice smaller than an I-Pass transponder for display in thevehicle's …

Flower plans scaled back

THIS year's hanging basket scheme for Tumble, Llannon and CrossHands has been scaled back.

Last year 220 baskets were placed in the three villages, but thisyear 150 hanging baskets will be placed, mainly in the high streetin Cross Hands.

The money saved from the hanging baskets will go towards flowertroughs which will be placed at certain entrance signs to the threevillages.

A total of Pounds 700 sponsorship has already been sought fromlocal businesses. It is hoped the baskets will be put up in mid May.

Hurricane Alex drenches Mexico's northern coast

Hurricane Alex ripped off roofs, flooded streets and forced thousands of people to flee coastal fishing villages as it pushed into northern Mexico after making landfall as a powerful Category 2 storm.

The Atlantic season's first hurricane largely spared nearby Texas, which had prepared for a possible direct hit. While it spawned two tornadoes and caused 1,000 people to evacuated low-lying areas there, state officials reported no injuries or major damages.

Earlier, Alex whipped up high waves that frustrated oil-spill cleanup efforts on the other side of the Gulf of Mexico and delivered tar balls and globs of crude onto already soiled beaches.

The storm made landfall Wednesday night on a relatively unpopulated stretch of coast in Mexico's northern Tamaulipas state, about 110 miles (180 kms) south of Brownsville, Texas.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said it was pushing inland early Thursday at 10 mph (17 kph).

Its heavy rains and 110 mph (160 kph) winds lashed Mexican fishing villages, whose residents fled inland to the town of San Fernando on buses and in pickup trucks. Hundreds of people filled a storm shelter in a town auditorium.

"We didn't bring anything but these clothes," said evacuee Carolina Sanchez, 21, motioning to two small plastic bags at her feet, as her 3-year-old sister Belen Sanchez Gonzalez clutched a purple and white stuffed toy poodle at the storm shelter.

Her father, a fisherman, was one of many coastal residents who stayed behind to keep watch on their homes and possessions.

Abel Ramirez of San Fernando's Civil Protection and Fire Department said seven fishing villages, with a combined population of about 5,000, were evacuated.

The storm blew down trees and lifted the tin roofs off several homes, but there were no immediate reports of injuries.

"The north winds are still blowing, which means the hurricane hasn't entirely passed by us yet," Ramirez said.

The civil defense office in Matamoros, across the border from Brownsville, said Alex's rains had already flooded around 30 neighborhoods there and officials were using small boats to rescue some residents.

Saul Hernandez Bautista, the Matamoros director of civil defense, said Alex had caused flooding and some damage, but with no injuries reported yet the city appeared to have escaped the worst.

"Thank God we managed to get the people out, there is water all over," he said. "Some trees have fallen, some (light) posts and lines are down, but nothing more."

In Texas, officials closed the causeway to South Padre Island, a vacation getaway off the Texas coast, and 9-foot waves were reported on the island's beach. But by Wednesday night the National Weather Service had downgraded its warning for the state's coast from hurricane to tropical storm strength.

More than 1,000 people in low-lying Hidalgo and Cameron counties fled to storm shelters. More than 1,000 homes were without power late Wednesday, with the biggest outage caused not by the storm but by a car that ran into a utility pole, American Electric Power spokesman Andy Heines said.

At least 100 families took shelter in a Brownsville high school.

Sergio Gonzales, 18, arrived with nine other family members after his father decided their house may not survive the flood.

Gonzales didn't agree with his dad.

"I think it's just going to be a normal one," he said.

The main threat as the hurricane begins to fall apart over land will be tornadoes, which could last another day or two, hurricane center meteorologist Chris Landsea said.

The other big threat is rain, Landsea said. Parts of Mexico and Texas are expected to get 6-12 inches of rain, which could cause flash flooding farther west, away from the coast, he said.

It was the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since 1995, according to the hurricane center.

Many in the border cities braved the growing rains: Commuters struggled to get to work, pedestrians crossed the bridge connecting Matamoros and Brownsville and newspaper hawkers manned the less-flooded intersections.

Government workers stuck duct tape in X's across the windows of the immigration office at the main downtown bridge in Matamoros on Tuesday. Trucks cruised slowly down residential streets carrying large jugs of drinking water and cars packed supermarket parking lots.

Flash floods also forced hundreds of evacuations in the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, but hurricane specialist Eric Blake said those rains were only indirectly related to Alex and possibly the residual effects of Hurricane Darby, which has dissipated in the Pacific.

Three people, including a 5-year-old child, were killed when heavy rains and winds brought down a wall over their wooden house in Acapulco, state Civil Protection authorities said.

Texas residents had been preparing for the storm for days, readying their homes and businesses and stocking up on household essentials. But concerns eased as the storm headed to the south.

Engineers were watching the levees in south Texas as the storm approached the area.

Scientists in Texas were also monitoring a buoy system that records the Gulf's water directions and velocity every half-hour. That information will determine where the oil could spread, should it approach Texas as tar balls on the beach, said Texas land commissioner Jerry Patterson.

Oil rigs and platforms in the path of the storm's outer bands were evacuated, and President Barack Obama issued a pre-emptive federal disaster declaration for southern Texas counties late Tuesday.

The three oil rigs and 28 platforms evacuated are not part of the Gulf oil spill response.

The storm was far from the Gulf oil spill, but cleanup vessels were sidelined by the hurricane's ripple effects. Six-foot waves churned up by the hurricane splattered beaches in Louisiana, Alabama and Florida with oil and tar balls.

In Louisiana, the storm pushed an oil patch toward Grand Isle and uninhabited Elmer's Island, dumping tar balls as big as apples on the beach. Boom lining the beach had been tossed about, and it couldn't be put back in place until the weather cleared.

"The sad thing is that it's been about three weeks since we had any big oil come in here," marine science technician Michael Malone said. "With this weather, we lost all the progress we made."

___

Associated Press Writers Paul J. Weber in Brownsville, Texas and Mary Foster and Tom Breen in Grand Isle, Louisiana, contributed to this report.

вторник, 13 марта 2012 г.

Be a loyal follower of garlic

Garlic compounds give 'invaders' a run for their money.

Even though Louis Pasteur, the French physician renowned for pioneering the pasteurization process, confirmed the antibacterial property of garlic in 1858, modern science - enamored with developing new antibiotics in the laboratory -- seemed to lose interest in the infection-fighting ability of this ancient herb.

Fortunately, garlic's loyal following of herbalists and devoted lay-people (including my grandfather who frequently admonished my sisters and me to eat lots of garlic) kept garlic's immuneboosting tradition alive as a popular home remedy and a general "cure for what ails you." Clearly garlic, and its derivatives, appears to be a veritable medicine-chest of immune-enhancing effects. Antibacterial, antifungal, antiparasitic powers

What is intriguing is the fact that although garlic prevents the growth of most bacteria, it is more likely to interfere with disease-causing bacteria, such as Esccherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus (the cause of "staph" infection), while leaving normal intestinal flora intact.

Intestinal parasites, including many that cause diarrhea, are no match for garlic. And fungal infections, such as yeast (Candida albicans) infection also lose out when confronted by garlic. For this reason, garlic is a common recommendation from herbalists for the treatment of recurrent yeast infections in women.

Garlic has been tested against Helicobacter pylori, the bacteria implicated in the development of stomach ulcers and stomach cancer, and found to inhibit its growth. This may account for why garlic-loving countries have lower rates of stomach cancer.

Immune-boosting, cancer & AIDS

In addition to its direct anti-microbial effects, garlic boosts the body's own resistance to infection: the immune system. Garlic, by increasing numbers of white blood cells called lymphocytes and natural killer cells, helps the body more effectively ward off infectious invaders.

Garlic's immune-strengthening effects account, in part, for the association between garlic and a lower risk of cancer and better immune function in AIDS patients.

Garlic extract research and immune function

AIDS. In 1989, garlic extract was given to a group of patients with clinically documented HIV/AIDS (Deutsche Zeitschrift far Onkologie). After 12 weeks, the researchers, led by T.H. Abdullah, found that 7 out of 7 evaluable patients achieved normal natural killer (NK) cell immune function. Other infections responded to the program, too (parasitic, bacterial & viral); platelet counts also improved.

A 1991 study by Benjamin H.S. Lau (Molecular Therapy) observed that garlic extract beneficially modulated antitumor immunity, suggesting that "garlic compounds may serve as biological response modifiers by improving macrophage and T-lymphocyte functions," macrophages and lymphocytes being important tissue-based and circulating white blood cells, respectively.

Whole garlic research and immune function

Cancer. A 1997 study by Geja Hagerman (Cancer Letters 114:161162) examined cells taken from healthy, non-smoking men. Cells of those who consumed a cucumber salad with 3 g of raw garlic for 8 days were treated with a cancer-causing chemical (benzopyrene), as were the cells of those who did not receive the garlic. Statistically-significant anticancer protection was seen in the cells of the garlic-eaters.

The protection appears to result from the action of garlic compounds in "turning off" special enzymes, which, in turn, leads to the reduced formation of nasty pro-cancer chemicals and improved scavenging of reactive oxygen species (free radicals).

Garlic for allergies

Since allergy (and asthma) is truly an immune response, it is interesting, although not surprising, that both powdered-garlic preparations and garlic extract appear to improve (reduce) allergic response.

Powdered garlic. A patent application by L.M. Lichtenstein, et al. (Euro. Pat. 153-881, 1985) states that nonaged derivatives of garlic and onions can treat allergies and inflammation. Garlic extract. A 1997 animal study in Phytomedicine (4[41:335-340) by E. Kyo, et al., showed a powerful decrease in allergic-reaction-caused ear swelling - by 45 to 55 percent at the latest stage of the reactions.

In short, garlic compounds are powerful allies in the fight against infections and for anyone wanting to optimize their immune defenses.

[Reference]

REFERENCES within text.

[Reference]

Victoria Dolby, M.P.H., is a health and nutrition writer who lives in Oregon. She takes a comprehensive look at the history and health benefits of green tea in The Green Tea Book (Avery, 1998). Ask your retailer to call: (800) 548-5757.

Suncor slashes spending budget for 2009

Canadian oil sands giant Suncor Energy says it's slashing capital spending this year because of plunging oil prices as it reported a drop in full-year earnings and a loss in its most recent quarter.

Suncor Energy Inc. said Tuesday it was halving its spending plans to $3 billion Canadian ($2.4 billion) and budgeting CA$1 billion ($790 million) for growth projects.

The move marks the second reduction in Suncor's spending outlook. The company trimmed its 2009 budget by more than a third to CA$6 billion ($4.8 billion) last October.

The precipitous drop in commodity prices caused a quarterly loss of CA$215 million ($170 million).

Thrashers' Goalie Posts Another Shutout

TAMPA, Fla. - Kari Lehtonen plans to enjoy his fast start as long as he can. The Thrashers' goalie had 34 saves in his second consecutive shutout, and Vyacheslav Kozlov scored a first-period goal to help Atlanta beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 1-0 on Monday night.

"It was just one of those days when everything seems to go your way," Lehtonen said. "I try to do everything the same way, and sometimes the post helps me and sometimes I'm just able to get the great save. That's the most fun you can get out there. It's not going to last forever."

Lehtonen, coming off a 6-0 win over Florida on Saturday, has five career shutouts. He has allowed two goals in three games this season.

Kozlov put Atlanta ahead 1-0 from the right circle at 12:26 of the first. The goal came after Tampa Bay defenseman Paul Ranger mishandled the puck in the Lightning zone.

"On this ice, I felt like we were playing a tennis match, not hockey," Kozlov said. "You never know who's going to get the puck."

Marc Denis made 19 saves for Tampa Bay, which has lost two straight at home.

Lehtonen stopped three shots - including an in-close chance by Martin St. Louis - during a 5-on-3 power play that lasted two minutes in the second. He also made a strong glove save on Vinny Prospal's shot right after the man advantage ended.

"He played great, I'm not going to take anything away from him," Tampa Bay center Brad Richards said. "But I'm not going to sit here and say the goalie stole the game from us. We've got to find a way to score 5-on-3. He made some big saves in key times. We're making him look good at times, too."

The Lightning outshot Atlanta 17-4 in the second and 28-10 overall through two periods.

"It's obviously a great feeling to get a shutout," Atlanta's Andy Sutton said. "Especially as a defenseman, you really feel like you've done something, even though we got badly outshot."

Tampa Bay went 0-for-6 with the man advantage and has converted one opportunity in 19 tries this season.

"We've got some guys struggling, putting pressure on themselves," Lightning coach John Tortorella said. "We're struggling offensively. You have to believe the scoring will come."

The Lightning have four goals - including three by Ryan Craig - in three games.

The Thrashers failed on three power-play chances. Their first opportunity in the second period lasted 4 seconds.

"It's a long season," Atlanta coach Bob Hartley said. "We don't go crazy on this. We know what we have to do. You don't get into the playoffs after a couple of games."

Notes:@ Tampa Bay C Andreas Karlsson (groin) missed his second consecutive game. ... Atlanta has outscored its opponent 5-0 in the first period this season. ... The Lightning have allowed five goals in the first while not scoring.

Fired Philly TV anchor sues colleague, station

A fired Philadelphia newscaster has filed a lawsuit accusing her former co-anchor of invading her privacy and leaking personal information to the media.

Alycia Lane's lawsuit was filed Tuesday.

Her former co-anchor, Larry Mendte, has pleaded guilty to illegally accessing Lane's e-mail and is awaiting sentencing. He admitted reading thousands of Lane's e-mails from 2006 to 2008.

Lane's lawsuit also names KYW-TV, the station that employed the two. She accuses the station of defaming her before and after she was fired after being arrested in December following a scuffle with New York police.

Tuesday's lawsuit expands on one Lane filed against the station over the summer by adding accusations and defendants, including Mendte.

Mendte's attorney and a representative of the station declined to comment.

US cable says UK refused call with hostage in Mali

LONDON (AP) — A newly leaked U.S. diplomatic cable suggests U.K. officials refused to speak with a British hostage who was later killed by his al-Qaida captors in West Africa.

According to the cable released by WikiLeaks and published Friday by the Daily Telegraph newspaper, U.S. diplomats said a Malian politician claimed Britain declined his offer to facilitate a phone call with Edwin Dyer.

"The British apparently never accepted out of fear that speaking to the hostage could put them into a position of having to negotiate with terrorists," the U.S. cable states.

Britain's Foreign Office on Friday declined to comment on unauthorized leaked documents, but said "we talk to anyone who we judge can help secure the release of a hostage."

Dyer was kidnapped in 2009 by al-Qaida terrorists in Mali, a poor, landlocked West African country. He was later executed after the British government refused his captor's demands, including a ransom and the release of extremist preacher Abu Qatada from prison.

Israel divided on deporting migrant children

TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — Israel will begin deporting families of illegal migrants in coming weeks, officials say, as an emotional debate rages over the ballooning numbers of foreign workers that some fear could threaten the country's Jewish identity.

A decade ago, Israel began bringing in foreign workers in an effort to reduce its dependence on cheap Palestinian laborers. Now tens of thousands of migrants from Asia and Africa who entered the country legally but have since overstayed their visas have developed strong ties to Israel and have no intention of returning home.

How to deal with the migrants hits on two of the most charged issues in Israel. On one hand the fear is that their growing numbers will dilute Israel's Jewish majority, while others warn that deporting them from a country born partly as a refuge for Jewish victims of the Holocaust is immoral.

But it is the fate of the migrants' children that has really ignited the national debate: Their advocates point out that they are educated in Jewish schools and speak flawless Hebrew — they just aren't citizens or Jews.

"What about the Jewish heart and Jewish compassion and Jewish morality?" pleaded Elie Wiesel, the Nobel winning Holocaust survivor, speaking out against the deportations.

Wiesel, who is not Israeli, said he found the issue so disturbing that he felt compelled to speak out on local affairs.

Others fear that scenes of Israeli forces deporting children will do no good to the country's already tarnished image following last year's war in Gaza and the deadly attack on a Turkish aid flotilla in May.

Interior Minister Eli Yishai, who oversees immigration policy, dismissed migrant sympathizers as "bleeding hearts" in a recent television interview. "Nobody is worrying about ... the Jewish identity of the state of Israel."

Israel grants automatic citizenship to Jews but doesn't have an immigration policy for non-Jews.

To control the influx, the government said in August it would issue permanent residency visas to children of migrants, but the criteria are so tough that most may still be deported. The children must have parents who entered Israel legally, be in school, speak Hebrew and have resided in Israel for at least five years.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at the time his government wanted to "take into our hearts children who grew up here and were educated here as Israelis," but he warned against creating an incentive for illegal migrants "to flood the country."

So far, some 600 families have registered with the Interior Ministry. Another 90 families were rejected, while the families of another 1,000 children didn't even apply, because they didn't meet the criteria, said Sigal Rozen, a migrant activist.

Those families may be deported, she added.

Interior Ministry official Roi Lachmanovich said deportations would begin by the end of September, after a series of Jewish holidays and would proceed on an individual basis — there would be no mass deportations.

Since the government announcement, anxious immigrant parents have been rushing to government offices to apply for residency.

Sounding very much like an Israeli, 15-year-old Demet, who is Turkish, said at an advocacy office for migrants that she hoped to join an Israeli army combat unit when she turns 18.

Meanwhile, other children nagged their parents in Hebrew, some wearing necklaces with the Star of David.

"They cannot evict my daughter," said Florence, a 39-year-old from Nigeria who overstayed her tourist visa to work in Israel 10 years ago. "She was born here."

Florence, who whispered to her six-year-old in Hebrew, declined to give her full name for fear that it would endanger her pending application.

Like many living in Israel illegally, Florence had believed an Israeli-born child would allow her to stay — precisely the fear of many Israelis.

But the migrants have gained some powerful allies, including Cabinet ministers on the left and right of Israeli politics and a group of Holocaust survivors. The prime minister's wife has spoken out against the policy, and Israel's kibbutz movement has vowed to hide the children in the country's 280 kibbutzim to thwart their deportation.

"This is not the Jewish state I know if it deports children," Industry Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer shouted during a Cabinet debate.

Israel was founded as an agricultural society but as it has industrialized and abandoned its one-time commitment to "Jewish labor," it has increasingly relied on workers from outside.

Originally, Palestinians from the territories Israel occupied in the 1967 Mideast war filled that need, but with the uprising of 2000, Israel turned to foreign labor.

Fearing attacks, Israel tightly restricted work permits for Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, shrinking their numbers from 200,000 in the late 1990s to about 32,000 today, and replacing them with Chinese construction workers, Thai farm hands, Philippine caregivers and others.

The visas were meant to last for just five years, but nearly 120,000 foreign workers stayed on, according to government statistics, lured by steady work, good money, and in many cases, needing to pay off the steep fees from the employment agencies, which could run up to $13,000.

Several thousand tourists are also believed to have overstayed their visas and are working illegally. Israel also has around 17,000 African asylum-seekers who fled violence and economic hardship.

Between the migrant influx and the much higher birthrate of Israel's Arab population, some here fear Israel's Jewish majority will gradually be eroded. Currently Jews make up roughly 80 percent of a population of 7 million.

The government is now cutting back on foreigners entering the country. Last year, about 27,000 came to work in Israel — the lowest number since 2004, according to government statistics.

Migrant activists say the government should shrink that number even more dramatically if they don't want to grapple with the burgeoning problem of foreigners and their Israeli-born children.

"If the government doesn't want anymore children, then they should stop bringing in their parents," said Rozen. "It's as simple as that."

(This version corrects spelling of activist name 12th and 31st paragraph.)

Italy needs WCup win at Montenegro to lift spirits

Italy will be seeking a morale-boosting victory at lowly Montenegro on Saturday to help show that the apparent decline of its clubs in European competition doesn't mean a successful World Cup defense is impossible.

Italy is tied at the top of its qualifying group and would like a comfortable game against Montenegro as its laboring players try to find some form ahead of next week's matchup with co-leader Ireland.

Italy's match is one of 20 on Saturday in European qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, with teams including Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain also aiming for another crucial three points as they try to reach the tournament in South Africa.

Montenegro is just a point above last place in Group 8 but has won five of 14 matches in its two-year international history and could be a dangerous opponent at home, especially with Italy coach Marcello Lippi having to shuffle his attack because of injuries.

The 2006 World Cup winners will be without the injured Luca Toni and Alberto Gilardino, suggesting that Giuseppe Rossi and Antonio Di Natale are likely to line up on the wings either side of central striker Vincenzo Iaquinta.

The danger for Italy is that it spends too much time thinking about Wednesday's game against Ireland, which is hosting Bulgaria on Saturday, and not enough on Montenegro.

"Up until now we've done well, with 10 points in four games, but there is another team _ Ireland _ that has done just as well," Lippi said. "(Ireland) is going to be our top opponent in the race for first place in the group."

Italian football needs a boost after all four of its representatives were eliminated from the Champions League this month and AC Milan was ousted from the UEFA Cup. Only Udinese is still in continental competition.

"I've reminded the guys that the real representation of a country's football is the national team," Lippi said. "And we're still the world champions for a year and a half."

With World Cup winners Gennaro Gattuso, Mauro Camoranesi and Simone Perrotta also unavailable, Italy got some good news with the absence of Montenegro captain Mirko Vucinic because of suspension.

Led by Giovanni Trapattoni, the most successful coach in the history of Italian football, Ireland is tied with Italy on 10 points. It hosts Bulgaria, which is seven points back in third, with goalkeeper Shay Given and midfielder Aidan McGeady recovered from injury and ready to play.

Bulgaria, meanwhile, will be without key striker Dimitar Berbatov because of an ankle injury.

Germany needs to get back to form at the top of Group 4 after losing its last two friendly games at home, 2-1 to England and 1-0 to Norway.

Germany should get back on the winning track when it hosts Liechtenstein in Leipzig, a team that it has already beaten 6-0 on the road.

"We can play well but we need order and discipline," captain Michael Ballack said. "That's our mentality and when we don't have that then we can have problems even against teams such as Norway."

The three-time World Cup champion has outscored its opponent 23-3 in three matches.

France is at Lithuania seeking victory to get closer to the surprise Group 7 co-leader. But striker Nicolas Anelka is out with a toe problem and was replaced in the squad by the inexperienced Guillaume Hoarau.

France lost its last two qualifying matches without scoring a goal.

"It's going to be a real battle, a real combat," said France coach Raymond Domenech, who also called up Andre-Pierre Gignac, the French league's leading scorer. "We're going to have to be mentally and physically very solid."

The Netherlands is coasting with maximum points at the top of Group 9. It can go even further clear if it beats second-place Scotland, which could then lose even more ground if it fails to beat Iceland in Glasgow on Wednesday _ when the Dutch play Macedonia.

European champion Spain is also cruising in Group 5 ahead of its game against visiting Turkey.

Czech Republic could surge to the top of Group 3 with victories over Slovenia and Slovakia and got a boost when defender and captain Tomas Ujfalusi declared himself fit despite a calf muscle problem.

"If we win twice, we'll lead the group. And that's our goal," Ujfalusi said.

Sweden is at Portugal, which has endured a similarly mediocre start to Group 1 qualifying, without star striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The Inter Milan forward is suspended after getting another yellow card when the teams drew 0-0 in Stockholm last year.

Daniel Nannskog and Oscar Wendt are in the squad after Markus Rosenberg and Behrang Safari withdrew on Sunday because of injury.

"Obviously, it is sad to receive late cancellations from two players in good shape, but that is the case," coach Lars Lagerback said.

Lagerback is hoping the quick attacks from Nani and Cristiano Ronaldo leave space for his side to attack.

"If we can capture the ball from them when they are attacking and change direction quickly they can be vulnerable," he said.

Group 1 co-leaders Denmark and Hungary are at Malta and Albania respectively, while Group 2 leader and favorite Greece is at second-place Israel.

With no matches scheduled for Group 6 until Wednesday, leader England has a home friendly against Slovakia to prepare for its match against Ukraine.

Long-distance effects of site-directed mutations on backbone conformation in bacteriorhodopsin from solid state NMR of [1-13C]Val-labeled proteins

ABSTRACT We have recorded ^sup 13^C cross-polarization-magic angle spinning and dipolar decoupled-magic angle spinning NMR spectra of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled wild-type bacteriorhodopsin (bR), and the V49A, V199A, T46V, T46VN49A, D96N, and D85N mutants, in order to study conformational changes of the backbone caused by site-directed mutations along the extracellular surface and the cytoplasmic half channel. On the basis of spectral changes in the V49A and V199A mutants, and upon specific cleavage by chymotrypsin, we assigned the three well-resolved ^sup 13^C signals observed at 172.93, 172.00, and 171.11 ppm to [1-^sup 13^C]Val 69, Val 49, and Val 199, respectively. The local conformations of the backbone at these residues are revealed by the conformation-dependent ^sup 13^C chemical shifts. We find that at the ambient temperature of these measurements Val 69 is not in a beta-sheet, in spite of previous observations by electron microscopy and x-ray diffraction at cryogenic temperatures, but in a flexible turn structure that undergoes conformational fluctuation. Results with the T46V mutant suggest that there is a long-distance effect on backbone conformation between Thr 46 and Val 49. From the spectra of the D85N and E204Q mutants there also appears to be coupling between Val 49 and Asp 85 and between Asp 85 and Glu 204, respectively. In addition, the T^sub 2^ measurement indicates conformational interaction between Asp 96 and extracellular surface. The protonation of Asp 85 in the photocycle therefore might induce changes in conformation or dynamics, or both, throughout the protein, from the extracellular surface to the side chain of Asp 96.

INTRODUCTION

Bacteriorhodopsin (bR) is a light-driven proton pump in the purple membrane of Halobacterium salinarium, in which retinal is covalently linked to Lys 216 through a protonated Schiff base (Stoeckenius and Bogomolni, 1982; Mathies et al., 1991; Lanyi, 1993, 1997; Maeda et al., 1997). Proton transport in bR is activated by photoisomerization of alltrans retinal to the 13-cis form, followed by proton transfer from the retinal Schiff base to Asp 85, release of a proton from residues or water molecule(s) at the extracellular surface, and uptake from cytoplasmic surface through reprotonation of the Schiff base by Asp 96 (Brown et al., 1994a, 1995; Yamazaki et al., 1995, 1996, 1998; Richter et al., 1996; Balashov et al., 1997; Dioumaev et al., 1998). Glu 204 is an essential part of the proton release chain, and proton release upon deprotonation of the retinal Schiff base is abolished by its replacement with glutamine (Brown et al., 1995; Govindjee et al., 1996; Rammelsberg et al., 1998). Likewise, the mutation of Glu 194 with glutamine (Dioumaev et al., 1998) or cysteine (Balashov et al., 1997) also resulted in greatly delayed proton release. It appears that the proton release group interacts with several residues and probably with water molecules. In addition, mutation of Arg 82 is known to affect the pK^sub a^ values of Asp 85 and Glu 204, as well as proton release (Govindjee et al., 1996). A water molecule between Arg 82 and Glu 204 in the recent x-ray diffraction structure (Fig. 1) is a possible candidate for the origin of the released proton (Luecke et al., 1998).

Proton uptake at the cytoplasmic side is initiated by deprotonation of Asp 96, and it has been suggested from changes in the Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) amide (peptide) bands in many mutants (Brown et al., 1994b; Yamazaki et al., 1995, 1996, 1998) that this may be influenced by long-range conformational interactions in the D85-V49-T46-D96 domain. In this scheme, Val 49 could play a key role in the information of protonation at Asp 85 to transfer to Asp 96 through hydrogen-bonding interaction with Thr 46 (Yamazaki et al., 1995), and its peptide C=O influences the proton acceptor function of the retinal Schiff base (Yamazaki et al., 1998). However, in the unphotolyzed state at least, the recent x-ray diffraction studies did not reveal the presence of such interactions between Val 49 and Thr 46 or between Asp 85 and Val 49, although a hydrogen bond between Asp 96 and hydroxyl group of Thr 46 was found (Pebay-Peyroula et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al.,1998). Long-distance effect on backbone conformation may become evident, however, from the three-dimensional structures of the photointermediates, either from x-ray diffraction or cryo-electron microscopy (Henderson et al., 1990; Grigorieff et al., 1996; Kimura et al., 1997). Such effect may be a common mechanism in ion pumps. Bacteriorhodopsin was recently compared with cytochrome c oxidase from this point of view (Wikstrom, 1998).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Sample preparation

[1-^sup 13^C]Valine and [3-^sup 13^C]Alanine were purchased from CIL, (Andover, MA) and used without purification. H. salinarium S-9 (wild-type), V49A, V199A, T46V, T46V/V49A, D96N, and D85N were grown in TS medium of Onishi et al. (1965), in which unlabeled L-valine or alanine was replaced by [1-^sup 13^C]Val or [3-^sup 13^C]Ala, respectively. Purple membranes from these sources were isolated by the method of Oesterhelt and Stoeckenius (1974) and concentrated by centrifugation at 39,800 x g for 1.5 h, followed by suspension in 5 mM HEPES buffer containing 10 mM NaCl and 0.025% (w/v) NaN^sub 3^ (pH 7.0). For the assignment of Val 69 signal, [1-^sup 13^C]Val-bR of wild-type was first bleached with 0.5 M NH^sub 2^OH (Tuzi et al., 1996b) and then cleaved by incubation with chymotrypsin (0.1-10 mg bR) for 2.5 h (Popot et al., 1987). The resulting cleaved bacterio-opsin (bO) was regenerated by incubation for 1.5 h at ambient temperature with retinal (1.1:1 mole bO) to yield bR, followed by centrifugation (Tuzi et al., 1996b). Samples thus prepared were placed into a 5-mm o.d. zirconia pencil-type rotor for magic angle spinning, and tightly sealed with Teflon caps glued with rapid Araldyte to prevent leakage or evaporation of water during spinning. Absorption spectra of these preparations were measured on a Shimadzu UV 2200 UV/Visible spectrophotometer (Kyoto, Japan).

Measurements of ^sup 13^C NMR spectra

High-resolution solid-state ^sup 13^C NMR spectra (100.6 MHz) were recorded on a Chemagnetics CMX-400 spectrometer by cross-polarization-magic angle spinning (CP-MAS) and dipolar decoupled-magic angle spinning (DD-MAS) with single-pulse excitation. All measurements were performed at 20 deg C, unless otherwise mentioned, under dark conditions. The spectral width was 40 kHz and contact time for the CP-MAS experiment was 1 ms. Repetition time was 4 s and 4-6 s for the CP- and DD-MAS experiments, respectively. Free-induction decay of improved spectral resolution was acquired with 2K data points and Fourier-transformed as 16K after 14K data points were zero-filled. Free-induction decays of some spectra were acquired with data points of IK and Fourier-transformed either as 16K or 8K after 15K or 7K points, respectively, were zero-filled. The pi/2 pulses for carbon and proton were 4.5-5 (mu)s and the spinning rate was 2.6-4.0 kHz. Spectral deconvolution was performed by PeakFit for Windows by SPSS (Chicago, IL).

RESULTS

Assignment of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-bR signals from the site-directed mutants, V49A and V199A, and cleavage by chymotrypsin

Fig. 2 shows ^sup 13^C CP-MAS (top) and DD-MAS NMR (bottom) spectra of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled bR. At least eight peaks were resolved from the ^sup 13^C CP-MAS NMR spectrum, except for the presence of a small bump (hatched peak) arising from the background signals of natural abundance, which is more pronounced in mutants such as D85N, as will be described below. The longer spin-lattice relaxation times in the CP-MAS experiments (14-16 s) indicated on the individual peaks in Fig. 2 are characteristic of rigid carbons in transmembrane helices. Surprisingly, no signal is visible in the CP-MAS NMR spectrum that would correspond to the most intense signal, at 173.5 ppm, in the DD-MAS NMR spectrum. It is probable that this peak may be ascribed to a carbonyl carbon in a Val residue located at a more flexible chain, as judged from the spin-lattice relaxation time that is one order of magnitude shorter (1.25 s) than that of the transmembrane helices. In contrast, the high-field three peaks, 171.11, 172.00, and 172.93 ppm, in the DD-MAS NMR spectrum resonated at the same positions as in the CP-MAS spectrum, although the peak intensity of the 172.00-ppm peak is substantially reduced to a value comparable to those of the other two peaks. The peaks that resonated lower than 173.98 ppm are virtually completely suppressed. This is consistent with the idea that the three high-field peaks arise from Val residues located at loops, and all other signals from transmembrane helices, including that from Val 49 superimposed on the 172.00-ppm peak to be described later, are suppressed in the DD-MAS spectrum because of their prolonged spin-lattice relaxation times. It is emphasized that this peak is composed of two components with different spin-lattice relaxation times as recorded by the CP-MAS and DD-MAS NMR spectra (Fig. 2). The peak at 171.11 ppm was previously ascribed to Val 199 (Tuzi et al., 1999).

Fig. 3 contains ^sup 13^C CP-MAS (left traces) and DD-MAS (right traces) NMR spectra of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled mutants, V49A (A) and V199A (B and D), together with those of the wild-type as reference (C and E). It is straightforward to assign the 172.00-ppm peak to Val 49, because this peak intensity is obviously much lower in the V49A mutant than in the wild-type. We confirm that the peak at 171.11 ppm is assigned to the Val 199 signal, because this peak disappears in the ^sup 13^C DD-MAS NMR spectrum of V199A mutant (trace D). It should be emphasized that this approach for the peak assignment is feasible only when no appreciable conformational change is induced in the site-directed mutants. This is the case here, because the ^sup 13^C chemical shifts, which would be intrinsically sensitive to any kind of conformational changes (Saito, 1986; Saito and Ando, 1989; Saito et al., 1998), are unchanged. At first glance, the local conformation at Val 49 and Val 199 would be ascribed to a beta-sheet on the basis of the ^sup 13^C chemical shift of 171.8 ppm in [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled poly(L-valine) in '-sheet in the solid state (Saito, 1986; Saito and Ando, 1989; Saito et al., 1998). This assignment is not justified for Val 49 and Val 199, however, because both are followed by a Pro residue (as is Val 69, see below), and the carbonyl ^sup 13^C chemical shifts of amino acid residues in such circumstances are usually displaced upfield by 1.4-2.5 ppm (Torchia and Lyerla, 1974; Wishart et al., 1995). Accordingly, the corrected ^sup 13^C shift of Val 199 and Val 49 turned out to be 172.5-173.6 and 173.4-174.5 ppm, respectively. Peaks that resonate between 172 and 173 ppm should be ascribed to carbons at loop regions in view of the analogous assignment of peaks for [1-^sup 13^C]Ala-bR (Yamaguchi et al., 1998). This means that the local conformation of Val 199 and 49 are ascribed to loop and alpha-helix, 174.9 ppm from poly(L-valine) (Saito, 1986: Saito and Ando, 1989; Saito et al., 1998), respectively. This is consistent with the x-ray diffraction structure measured at cryogenic temperatures (Kimura et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998: Essen et al., 1998).

In order to confirm the local conformation of Val 49 as alpha-helix, the conformation-dependent ^sup 13^C chemical shifts of C^sub alpha^ or C^sub beta^ carbons should be determined also, as these atoms are free from effects from a neighboring Pro. In such an experiment, we compared the ^sup 13^C NMR spectrum of [3-^sup 13^C] Ala-labeled V49A mutant (A) with that of wild-type (B), as shown in Fig. 4. Indeed, we find that the ^sup 13^C chemical shift of the newly emerged [3-^sup 13^C]Ala signal for V49A (Ala 49) (shaded peak) in the deconvoluted spectrum (C) resonates at 16.7 ppm; that is characteristic of the alpha-helix (Saito and Ando, 1989; Saito et al., 1998). As for [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeling, it is unlikely that the two peaks mentioned above for Val 49 and 199 arose from a single carbon in view of their relative peak intensities (Figs. 2 and 3), although the former peak from the transmembrane a-helix is resonated at the peak region of the loop region because of the aforementioned proline effect. In fact, it is probable that they are composite peaks, being superimposed by chance on the carbonyl carbon(s) of another Val residue located in loop regions (Val 34 in A-B loop, Val 101 in C-D, and Val 130 in D-E loop, for instance). Alternatively, they might be background signals from natural abundance, because V49A and V199A exhibit recognizable residual peaks at 172.00 and 171.11 ppm, respectively. It is therefore likely that either Val 34 or Val 130, or both, are superimposed on the peak of Val 49. This is suggested by the relaxation data for Val 199, described below. The assignment of the Val 101 peak will be also given below.

In Fig. 5, we compare the 13C NMR spectra of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled regenerated bR (left) and chymotrypsincleaved preparation (right) at various temperatures, for the sake of assigning the Val 69 signal. Surprisingly, the single peak at 172.9 ppm arising from two or three components that are accidentally superimposed on the uncleaved bR at 20 deg C is split into a doublet peak at both elevated (30 deg C) and low temperatures (0 deg C) (left traces). This is obviously caused by the facts that this peak consists of two Val residues and one of the peaks (172.7 ppm at 30 deg C, arrow) was suppressed in the temperature range around 20 deg C, and at higher temperatures displaced downfield (173.0 ppm at 0 deg C, arrow) by 0.3 ppm. This temperature effect was removed after the protein was cleaved at residues 71-72 by chymotrypsin (right traces). For this reason, it is probable that this carbonyl carbon is ascribed to a Val residue located at a loop region and is able to undergo conformational fluctuation with the frequency of 10^sup 4^-10^sup 5^ Hz that interferes with the proton decoupling frequency (Suwelack et al., 1980; Rothwell and Waugh, 1981). The peak intensity of this residue is not affected by temperature in the case of the chymotrypsin-cleaved preparation (right traces), because frequency for this motion would be shifted away from the proton decoupling frequency by this treatment. Therefore, the peak at 172.9 ppm was assigned to Val 69, which is the only Val residue near the chymotrypsin cleavage-site (in the B-C interhelical loop). When corrected downfield by 1.42.5 ppm to 174.3-175.4 ppm because Pro 70 follows it, the local conformation of the peptide bond at Val 69 is thus far from what one would expect if the B-C interhelical loop were in the beta-sheet (171.8 ppm), as in the structures described from cryo-electron microscopy or low temperature x-ray diffraction (Kimura et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998). Instead, we conclude that at ambient temperature the backbone at this residue adopts a flexible turn structure, undergoing rapid reorientational motion as judged from the spectral observation by the DD-MAS experiment (Fig. 2 B). Indeed, it appears that the carbonyl 13C chemical shifts of amino acid residues taking random coil conformation is rather close to those of a-helix form (Howarth and Lilley, 1978; Wishart et al., 1991; Yamaguchi et al., 1998).

Changes in the local backbone conformation and dynamics due to site-directed mutagenesis

Fig. 6 shows ^sup 13^C CP-MAS NMR spectra in whole carbonyl region (left), and in an expanded region that includes the loop region only (right), of the [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled mutants D96N, T46V, and T46VN49A. Naturally, the shoulder peak denoted with an arrow at 177.5 ppm in the T46V and T46VN49A mutants can be ascribed to the new Val 46 signal. The assignment of the 172.15 ppm peak to Val 49 in the presence of the T46V mutation is confirmed by its disappearance in the T46VN49A double mutant. The most notable spectral change is that the accidentally overlapped Val 69 signal of wild-type at 172.93 ppm is split into the two peaks at 172.76 and 173.52 ppm, in view of the relative peak intensities, in the D96N mutant. The former peak position (172.76 ppm) is the same as that of Val 69 signal in wild-type (Fig. 5) and the latter (173.52 ppm) is straightforwardly ascribed to the shifted peak from the peak at 172.93 ppm of Val 101 (Fig. 1) in this mutant, because this Val residue, and no other, is close to Asp 96 (Henderson et al., 1990; Grigorieff et al., 1996; Pebay-Peyroula et al., 1997; Kimura et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998). It is also noteworthy that there appears a slight downfield displacement of the peak for Val 49 in the T46V mutant, by 0.15 ppm (as compared with the digital resolution 0.025 ppm in this case), even though the other peaks are nearly unchanged.

Fig. 7 shows the ^sup 13^C CP-MAS NMR spectra of [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled D85N (B) and E204Q (C), together with the spectrum of the wild-type (A). As in Fig. 6, they are shown as expanded traces on the right side. The most prominent spectral changes are noted for D85N mutant, both from the peak intensities and spectral features especially at the transmembrane helices at the lower field region. As to the former, the peak intensities from transmembrane helices, including the signal from Val 49, seem to be reduced when compared with those of the hatched peaks from the background signals. As to the latter, the two peaks at 176.98 and 174.49 ppm of the wild-type are displaced upfield and downfield by 2.0 and 0.37 ppm, respectively, and merged to the peak at 174.98 ppm. It is probable that such drastic displacements of the carbonyl peaks must be interpreted in terms of a large-scale conformational change that includes modification of the local torsion angles or hydrogen bonding, or both. However, in projection, and at a 7-Angstrom resolution, the structure of D85N appeared similar to the wild-type (Kataoka et al., 1993). More importantly in relation to the question of long-distance effect, the Val 49 signal of D85N is displaced either downfield by 0.28 ppm or upfield by 0.12 ppm with respect to that of the wild-type (172.00 ppm). In contrast, the Val 49 signal is displaced upfield by 0.05 ppm (although this shift is only slightly larger than the digital resolution, at 0.025 ppm) in E204Q. The Val 69 peak for D85N and E204Q is split into double or triple peaks, as in D96N, although no further spectral change was noted in the latter mutant.

We have evaluated ^sup 13^C spin-spin relaxation times for wild-type and a variety of mutants under the condition of cross-polarization magic-angle spinning and high-power proton decoupling (T^sub 2^) (Suwelack et al., 1980; Rothwell and Waugh, 1981), from the slope of a linear plot of the relative peak intensity versus interval between the contact and pi pulse, as shown in Fig. 8 for Val 199. The results are summarized in Table 1. We expected that the transverse magnetization of the carbonyl carbons would be sensitive to the backbone dynamics of the respective carbon close to the rate of magic angle spinning (10^sup 4^ Hz), because it decays mainly via fluctuation of chemical shift interaction (Suwelack et al., 1980; Rothwell and Waugh, 1981), as shown in Eq. 2:

where omega^sub O^ and omega^sub r^ are the carbon resonance frequency and the rotor frequency, respectively, and tau^sub C^, delta, and eta are the correlation time of conformational fluctuation, chemical shift anisotropy, and its asymmetry parameter, respectively.

Interestingly, the T^sub 2^ value for Val 199 of wild-type takes the greatest value at 14 ms, in contrast to 5-7 ms in the transmembrane region. The peak of Val 49, however, assumes an intermediate value, apparently the result of superimposition of the contributions from the shorter value of the transmembrane helix and the seemingly longer value of the superimposed peak in the loop. It is not clear why they are averaged and do not assume distinct T^sub 2^ values. They should be considered as effective T^sub 2^, consisting of two contributions. The ^sup 13^C-resolved proton spin-lattice relaxation times in the rotating frame (TIP) and cross-polarization times (T^sub CH^) are also summarized in Table 1. There appears to be no significant variation of the several types of carbonresolved proton spin-lattice relaxation times among wildtype and mutants. This may be because a rapid spin diffusion process allows all the relaxation parameters to become identical unless a portion undergoes conformational fluctuation, as demonstrated earlier for [3-^sup 13C]Ala-labeled bR and bO (Tuzi et al., 1996b).

DISCUSSISON

Conformation and backbone dynamics

At ambient temperature, eight well-resolved ^sup 13^C NMR peaks were observed for [^sup 13^C]Val-labeled bR (Fig. 2). They originate from the 18 Val residues and their displacements are spread between 171 and 177 ppm, depending upon the local backbone secondary structure. We were able to assign the carbonyl signals of Val 199, Val 49, Val 69, and Val 101, even though none the peaks arose from single carbon atom but overlapped with at least one other peak. Nevertheless, these peaks are useful as intrinsic probes for examining the backbone conformation, as revealed by conformation-dependent chemical shifts (Saito, 1986; Saito and Ando, 1989; Saito et al., 1998), in [1-^sup 13^C]Val-labeled wildtype and mutant bRs. For example, we found that the Val 101 signal overlaps with Val 69 signal in wild-type but becomes separated from it at temperatures above or below 20 deg C or in the D96N mutant.

If a Val residue is followed by a Pro residue, as in the case of Val 49, Val 69, and Val 199, a correction to the observed ^sup 13^C chemical shift for the proline effect of up to 2.6 ppm (Torchia and Lyerla, 1974; Wishart et al., 1995) is essential for assessing the backbone conformation from the carbonyl ^sup 13^C chemical shifts. As a result, we found that [1-^sup 13^C]Val 49 that resonated at 172.00 ppm is ascribed to an alpha-helix region in spite of its raw chemical shift data that would be otherwise characteristic of a beta-sheet conformation. This assignment was confirmed on the basis of the conformation-dependent ^sup 13^C chemical shift of [3-^sup 13^C]Alalabeled mutant, V49A (Fig. 4) and is consistent with the 3-D crystal structure (Henderson et al., 1990; Grigorieff et al., 1996; Pebay-Peyroula et al., 1997; Kimura et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998). Interestingly, the [1-^sup 13^C]Val 49 chemical shift is very close to that in the synthetic fragment B of bR incorporated into DMPC bilayer, 172.8 ppm (S. Kimura, A. Naito, and H. Saito, manuscript in preparation). Proton NMR of a bO segment that included residues from 1 to 71 indicated that the region around Val 49 is alpha-helical (Pervushin et. al., 1994). The significant difference (0.8 ppm) in the chemical shift between the intact protein and its fragment can be ascribed to the presence or absence of interchain interactions. One candidate for such interaction may be Asp 85, because the Val 49 peak position was modified in the D85N mutant.

It is interesting to note that Val 69 is not involved in a rigid extracellular beta-sheet, at least at the ambient temperature of our measurements. We conclude this from both the conformation-dependent ^sup 13^C chemical shift and the backbone dynamics, which exhibits motions with a correlation time of 10^sup -5^ s and interferes with the proton decoupling frequency (Fig. 5). This contrasts with the structure based on cryo-electron microscopy (Kimura et al., 1997) or lowtemperature x-ray diffraction (Pebay-Peyroula et al., 1997; Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998). This contradiction is undoubtedly due to the fact that backbone dynamics at the B-C loop (but not in the intrahelical region near Val 49, see above) are strongly dependent on temperature.

Comparison of the CP-MAS and DD-MAS NMR spectra based on differential T^sub 1^ value was very useful for distinguishing the Val 49 signal from the unassigned peak at 172.00 ppm, as demonstrated in Fig. 2. This is because correlation time of acquired motional freedom on the time scale of 10^sup -8^ s in the loop region shortened the T^sub 1^ values as compared with those at the transmembrane helices. In a similar manner, it is probable that the rather longer T^sub 2^ value of Val 49, 9.5 ms, as compared with that of other transmembrane helices, 5-7 ms, arises from the superimposed signal in the loop region, although this correlation time is in the order of 10^sup -4^ S. This may be caused by heterogeneity in the correlation times, which are sensitive to fast or slow molecular motions, provided that the motions are highly anisotropic.

The most significant displacement of peaks due to sitedirected mutagenesis is noted for the carbonyl peak in the transmembrane alpha-helix of D85N ( 174.98 ppm) by the amount of 2.0 ppm rather than that in the loop region, probably due to the presence of accompanying distortion in hydrogen bonds, in addition to a change in the torsion angles in the alpha-helical region as a result of relatively largescale conformational changes. This view is supported by the observation of shortened spin-lattice relaxation (Fig. 2) and spin-spin relaxation times of CP-MAS experiment (Table 1), especially for Val 199 of the wild-type. Therefore, it is likely that the displacement of the ^sup 13^C chemical shift of Val 199 in the F-G loop in D85N is less pronounced (0.11 ppm) because of intrinsic conformational fluctuation, as mentioned already, as compared with the peaks from the transmembrane helices (2.00 ppm).

Conformational changes along the cytoplasmic half channel

The present finding of a significant displacement of the peptide bond of Val 49 in the D85N mutant indicates that there is the long-distance effect on backbone conformation between Asp 85 and Val 49 (Fig. 1). This finding implies that the protonation of Asp 85 in the photocycle will result in a local conformational change at Val 49 (Yamazaki et al., 1996). Fig. 6 demonstrates that the Val 49 ^sup 13^C chemical shift in the T46V mutant is displaced downfield by 0.15 ppm relative to that of the wild-type. In the x-ray diffraction structure (Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998), however, no atoms of V49 and T46 are closer than 4 Angstrom. The longdistance effect on backbone conformation must be indirect, i.e., by means other than the hydrogen bonds proposed by Yamazaki et al. (1996). It might have been expected that the Val 49 ^sup 13^C NMR signal would also be indirectly modified in the D96N mutant, in view of the interaction of the side-chains of Asp 96 and Thr 46 (Luecke et al., 1998; Essen et al., 1998). We found, however, no such displacement of the Val 49 peak (Fig. 6, B and F). It may be that the amide group of Asn 96 forms a hydrogen bond with Thr 46 in D96N, like the carboxyl group of Asp 96 in the wild-type.

A significant spectral change occurs in either Val 69 or 101, or both, however, upon replacement of Asp 96 with Asn. It is likely that the new peak at 173.52 ppm that appears in D96N is to be ascribed to Val 101 because of its proximity to Asp 96.

It is notable that the T^sub 2^ values for Val 199 are substantially decreased in a variety of mutants as compared with wild-type (Table 1). In particular, the observed shortened T^sub 2^ value of Val 199 in the D96N mutant indicates that there is interaction between Asp 96 and the backbone near the extracellular surface at Val 199. This interaction must be transmitted across the protein in the T46-V49-D85-E204 domain, through the conformational interactions between Thr 46 and Val 49, Val 49 and Asp 85, and Asp 85 and Glu 204, described above and in the following section.

Conformational changes induced near the extracellular surface

We found that the Val 49 signal is also displaced in the E204Q mutant, although the direction of the displacement in this case is opposite to that of D85N. This finding suggests interaction between Glu 204 and Val 49 mediated by Asp 85. This would be consistent with the finding that the pK^sub a^ values of Asp 85 and Glu 204 are coupled to each other (Richter et al., 1996; Balashov et al., 1997). In addition, we found evidence of interaction between Asp 85 and Glu 194 and 204 through Arg 82, as manifested from the induced conformational change at the extracellular surface on the basis of spectral changes in the ^sup 13^C NMR spectrum of [3-^sup 13^C]Ala-D85N, which parallel those in E194D, E194Q, and E204Q (M. Tanio, S. Tuzi, S. Yamaguchi, R. Kawaminami, A. Naito, R. Needleman, J. K. Lanyi, and H. Saito, submitted for publication). The effects of mutations on the ^sup 13^C chemical shifts of Val 199 in the F-G loop are in the same direction for D85N and E204Q. This effect is less pronounced than for Val 49, suggesting that the interaction with Asp 85 might be stronger with Val 49 than with Val 199. It was reported earlier from photocycle kinetics (Brown et al., 1994b) that the pK^sub a^ difference between the retinal Schiff base and Asp 85 changed when the side chain of residue 49 was changed. Thus, the interaction of Val 49 with Asp 85 could be mediated by the intervening Schiff base. It is interesting to note also that in the recent x-ray diffraction structure of Luecke et al. (1998), Asp 85 is connected with Glu 204 through a hydrogen-bonded network of two water molecules, the retinal Schiff base, Asp 212 and Arg 82. It may be expected from this structure that disruption or perturbation of this network would bring about a conformational change.

CONCLUSION

Studies of the displaced ^sup 13^C chemical shifts of [1-^sup 13^C]Vallabeled unphotolyzed wild-type and mutants are novel means to analyze snapshots of local interactions among molecular chains that arise from conformational changes. In particular, the dynamic features of the local conformations can readily be evaluated by examination of the relaxation parameters at ambient temperature. This sort of information is important, because these molecular processes occur at physiological temperature and could mimic what happens during the photocycle of bR.

In particular, the data for the T46V mutant indicate that there is a specific interaction between hydroxyl group of Thr 46 and carbonyl or amide of Val 49, which are only about one helix turn apart. Further, the results with D85N and E204Q show that there exist interactions between Val 49 and Asp 85 and between Asp 85 and Glu 204, respectively. Therefore, we conclude that there exists an interacting chain of residues and backbone that comprise T46-V49D85-E204. In addition, the present finding based on the T^sub 2^ measurement indicates that there exists interaction between Asp 96 and extracellular surface, probably through the above-mentioned interacting chain. The long-distance effect on backbone conformation is through a hydrogen-bonded chain in the extracellular region, but its nature in the cytoplasmic region is not yet clear. The findings from NMR thus confirm the conclusions made from FTIR (Yamazaki et al., 1995, 1996, 1998), and suggest that protonation of Asp 85 during the photocycle might induce changed conformation and/or dynamics at both the extracellular surface and side chain of Asp 96. This kind of long-range interaction could be relevant in general also to signal transduction systems such as G-protein coupled or other receptor molecules.

This work was supported in part by grants-in-aid for the Scientific Research from the Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports in Japan (09480179 and 10044092) and a special grant from Hyogo Prefecture.

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[Author Affiliation]

Michikazu Tanio,* Sayuri Inoue,* Kiyonobu Yokota,* Toshizo Seki,* Satoru Tuzi,* Richard Needleman,# Janos K. Lanyi, Akira Naito,* and Hazime Saito*

*Department of Life Science, Himeji Institute of Technology, Harima Science Garden City, Kamigori, Hyogo 678-1297, Japan,

#Department of Biochemistry, Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan 48201, and Department of Physiology and Biophysics, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-4560 USA

[Author Affiliation]

Received for publication 26 January 1999 and in final form 13 April 1999.

Address reprint requests to Dr. Hazime Saito, Department of Life Science, Himeji Institute of Technology, Harima Science Garden City, Kamigori, Hyogo 678-1297, Japan. Tel.: 81-7915-8-0181, Fax: 81-7915-8-0182; E-mail: saito@sci.himeji-tech.ac.jp.

понедельник, 12 марта 2012 г.

LOCAL FORECAST COMMUNICATION IN THE ALTIPLANO

According to data from two Altiplano communities, Andean farmers do not use the forecasts broadcast by national weather services . . . so what forecast information do they use?

Agricultural production systems are extremely sensitive to climate variability. This is especially true for small farmer production systems in developing countries where there are few resources to cushion the impacts of climatic shocks. Seasonal and monthly forecasts hold the promise of reducing the impacts of these shocks by allowing farmers to take actions that will either minimize the impacts of adverse weather conditions or take advantage of good growing conditions. To do this requires that small farmers receive forecasts in the form and time needed to help them make decisions. In the last 10 years, there has been a growing realization that farmers have not used forecasts to the degree that the forecast community had hoped. As a result, considerable effort has been devoted to understanding why this has not taken place. This paper describes the networks used to transmit forecast information in the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru with special reference to three indigenous communities. The implications of these findings for improved forecast utilization are then discussed.

LINKING FORECASTERS AND END USERS. It has long been believed that seasonal climate forecasts and forecasts of the onset of annual rains would greatly improve the livelihoods of farmers in developing countries. During the 1990s, improvements in climate forecasting, especially in areas influenced by the ENSO phenomenon, seemed to offer the potential of making this dream a reality. The El Ni�o of 1997/98 was the first opportunity to see how climate forecasts could actually contribute to the solution of real world problems (Buizer et al. 2000). News of this event was widely publicized and 11 Regional Climate Outlook Fora were organized. These fora were to develop and communicate consensus seasonal outlooks, to encourage cross-national cooperation, and to create a dialogue between the producers and users of forecasts.

The events following the release of seasonal forecasts around the 1997/98 El Ni�o showed both the potential value of seasonal forecasts as well as the challenges that had to be met before the potential of these forecasts could be realized. The value of anticipating and mitigating the negative impacts of El Ni�o through increased preparedness was demonstrated, but so were the limitations of the forecast technology and the institutions that were to use the forecasts. The probabilistic forecasts were often misinterpreted by the media and by policy makers (Manning 2003; Webster 2003). These groups tended to overestimate the skill levels of the forecasts and viewed probabilistic forecasts as certainties. Low skill levels limited the utility of the forecasts, especially for individuals and institutions working at the local level (Greenfield and Fisher 2003). In other cases, the forecasts were not in a form that was useable for decision makers either because of their timing or because it was difficult to translate regional predictions to the local level (Lemos et al. 2002; Orlove et al. 2002).

Even though climate forecasts were publicized via mass media and the Internet, many groups did not use the forecasts. Many relied on traditional forecast methods and traditional risk-reduction strategies. Others, particularly the poor who are most vulnerable to climate shocks, did not have access to forecasts (Archer 2003; Broad et al. 2002).

One of the most important conclusions drawn from the 1997/98 El Ni�o experience was the need to improve linkages between forecasters and end users (Greenfield and Fisher 2003). Failed forecast communications and misunderstood forecasts can only be reduced by developing a meaning system that can be mutually understood by forecasters and users. In addition, improved interactions between users and forecasters were needed to develop more useful and trusted forecast products.

Network analysis provides a useful framework for helping us understand how forecasts are communicated and used. Its utilization can improve the efficiency of forecast communication and the quality of forecast products. Network analysis has long been one of the tools for understanding the diffusion of information about innovations (see Valente 1996 for an overview). However, in the case of climate forecasting, its application goes beyond the analysis of the efficiency of communication. Studying the flow of information is also one of the simplest ways to identify stakeholders in the system who produce, transmit, transform, and/or receive forecast information. Ziervogel and Downing (2004) have demonstrated the utility of this approach in southern Africa.

The basic components of networks are channels and nodes. In this case, channels are the means and acts of communication. Nodes are those individuals and institutions that connect two or more channels; an individual who has access to one channel is not a node. Nodes can be of two kinds. There are nodes that simply pass on information received from other nodes, such as a newspaper that prints forecasts that it obtains from a meteorological service. Other nodes may transform information received through one or more channels and then pass it on to others. Extension workers and communications specialists are professional nodes while local opinion leaders are crucial nodes for the adoption of new technology (Valente 1996).

The present study looks at the networks used for the communication of climate forecasts in the Altiplano of Peru and Bolivia starting at the farm level. The case of the Altiplano of Peru and Bolivia is very interesting in this regard. High elevations and frequent droughts and floods make farmers in the region very vulnerable to climatic risk. Altiplano populations are very poor and hence very vulnerable to climate shocks. In addition, weather considerations are an important part of traditional farm decision making. Farmers vary the time of planting, the place of planting, and the crops planted according to their expectations about growing conditions. The Bolivian and Peruvian Altiplano are ethnically and ecologically similar, but the two nations are quite different when it comes to the production and utilization of forecasts. Peru has well-developed forecast institutions that have several decades of experience. During the 1997/98 El Ni�o, the climate forecasts were widely publicized and the government used climate forecasts to guide disaster mitigation and prevention efforts. Bolivia's forecast institutions are young and fragile. Efforts linking food security and climate forecasting began in the late 1990s financed by the European Union. At the time that the field research presented here was conducted, the system was not fully operational.

THE RESEARCH SITES. Field research was undertaken in three Aymara-speaking communities in Bolivia and Peru- San Jose Llanga in Bolivia's Armoa Province and Ancacca and Santa Maria in Peru's Department of Puno (see Fig. 1). Household surveys were supplemented with interviews of meteorologists and forecast professionals in La Paz and Lima. Although the forecast communities differ in Bolivia in terms of size, experience, and efficiency, the systems in both countries have similar structures. Peru is unique in that it has two forecasting institutions, but the basic flow of information is similar in the two countries. Data from satellites, foreign sources, and field stations are developed into forecasts. These forecasts are then disseminated to radio and television stations and to government agencies. To reach farmers, government extension services and local governments are the target audiences for forecasts of information. Forecasting agencies in both countries assume that farmers will receive forecast information from radio and television or from government agents.

Communities have legal standing and usually are made up of more than one area of settlement (referred to as sectors in this paper). San Jose Llanga has five sectors, Santa Maria four, and Ancacca three. Potatoes are the primary food crop in all three communities. Sheep and cattle are also raised. The communities differ in terms of the relative importance of crops and livestock and in terms of access to nonfarm income sources. Livestock production is very important in San Jose Llanga and Ancacca. Dairy and sheep production are important activities in San Jose Llanga, and sheep and beef production in Ancacca. Livestock play a lesser role in Santa Maria where handicraft production and off-farm employment are more important (Table 1).

All three communities suffer from periodic droughts and floods. In addition, the high altitude and low nighttime temperatures make frost a constant concern. In group meetings in 2006, producers indicated that the greatest threat to their well-being were weather-related risks. As a consequence, producer planting decisions are made with these risks in mind. Farmers have a keen interest in seasonal forecasts, because their planting decisions are based on the kind of weather that they anticipate. They have a number of options available to them that can either reduce the risks of drought, floods, and frosts or take advantage of favorable growing conditions. For example, they can alter planting dates or they can plant varieties of potatoes that are more resistant to frost and drought. Planting resistant varieties involves a trade-off because these varieties do not have a larger market demand or have lower yields in normal or good years. Farmers in these communities also possess fallow fields in low areas and on slopes, so they can also alter where they plant. Low areas are more subject to frost and flooding but can produce more in dry years. Slopes are more productive in wetter years or in years when frost is a problem.

METHODOLOGY. This study is based on surveys and key informant interviews in the three communities and on interviews conducted with forecast professionals in La Paz, Bolivia, and Lima, Peru. In Bolivia the surveys were carried out in 1999 and 2000 and those in Peru were carried out in 2000 and 2001. In addition to the surveys, a series of unstructured interviews were carried out in the Bolivian community in 2001. These were followed up with community meetings in the summer of 2006. The purpose of the 2006 meetings were to evaluate changes since the original surveys. In Bolivia, a representative sample of 45% of the families in the community took part in the survey and 70% were included in the unstructured interviews. In Peru, a representative sample of 77% of households in the two communities participated in the surveys. Care was taken to have samples that represented all of the sectors in a community.

The surveys and interviews gathered information on sources of forecast information, demographic information, production information, and income. The information on forecasts was used to map the networks that communicated and processed climate information for each of the communities. A matrix was formed with every member of each community listed as both potential sources (horizontal axis) and recipients of information (vertical axis). In this matter we could identify those persons/nodes that were crucial forthe communication of forecasts. Communication was coded as one way or two way. One-way communication was defined as the case where an individual sought infor- mation from another by either asking a knowl- edgeable person or by observing their behavior. Two-way communica- tion involved information exchange and discussion. One-way communication dominated in our study communities. Very few persons exchanged information; instead, information was sought from a few individuals. The relationship that persons had with other persons in their networks was also noted- the relationship based on kinship, neighborhood residence, membership in an organization, or participation in community activities.

FINDINGS. Sources of forecast information. Scientific forecasts were not an important element in farmer decision making. While television ownership was not common, nearly all the producers listened regularly to radio programs that included forecasts. In Peru where the forecasting system is more developed and where the government has made concerted efforts to publicize forecasts, 22% of the farmers in one community and 10% in the other accessed scientific forecasts broadcast by this medium. In Bolivia, which has a less developed forecast system, only 4% did. In all communities, farmers were aware of the existence of extra-local forecasts but did not use them. Radio forecasts were viewed with interest, but the prevailing view is that they were not relevant to local conditions (Table 2).

Forecasts made in the community where one lives are seen to have the most value. For example, even though most farmers in San Jose Llanga listen to an Aymara-language radio program on Radio San Gabriel, where traditional weather experts from two nearby communities discuss their observations of forecast indicators and make forecasts, the prevailing view is that the forecasts are only valid for the location where the indicators were observed. This is true for scientific forecasts. Even people who have some confidence in western science believe that if a forecast comes out of the capital city, it is seen as at best valid for that city and invalid for indigenous communities. Instead people relied on traditional forecast methods and local experts.

Traditional forecasting was based on two types of indicators- abiotic indicators and biotic indicators. The abiotic indicators included the appearance of the constellation Pleiades and the direction of winds around days that had astrological significance, such as the winter solstice and the midpoint between the solstice and the equinox and certain saint's days. Orlove et al. (2000, 2002) have demonstrated that there is a correlation between the appearance of the Pleiades and precipitation in the Altiplano. There may also be some connection between future climate events and winds.

The biotic indicators include the flowering patterns of certain perennial plants, the nesting behavior of a number of bird species, and the behavior of foxes and some insects. Plant indicators are used primarily to determine planting times and may be more related to soil moisture and temperature than to future weather. The animal indicators are used to determine whether a year will be wet or dry and are used to help decide where to plant. The empirical link between these indicators and climate is less clear.

In Peru, the most common source for forecast information from outside of the community was the Bristol Almanac, a publication resembling the Farmer's Almanac in the United States. Like the Farmer's Almanac, the Bristol Almanac contains seasonal forecasts. However, relatively few people expressed confidence in its predictions themselves. Instead they used the almanac as a reference to identify days of astrological importance (phases of the sun and the moon) and saint's days. These are the days when most traditional forecast indicators are interpreted.

Local forecast networks and the importance of nodes. Even though almost everyone in the communities studied - young and old knew the traditional forecast indicators and how they were to be interpreted farmers leave forecasting to a few local experts. These local experts or nodes in network parlance are the key to the distribution of forecast knowledge within each community. Each sector/neighborhood of a community would have one or more local experts who were in turn linked to other experts within and on rare occasions outside of the community. The experts who the neighborhood experts referred to are the primary nodes in the communication of forecasts. There were three primary nodes in San Jose Llanga, two in Santa Maria, and one in Ancacca.

The findings concerning networks are best understood using a network diagram. Figure 2 is a diagram summarizing the information networks in Ancacca. Each box represents a sector of the community and contains the names of the experts in each neighborhood. Arrows indicate information-seeking behavior, with the direction of each arrow indicating where a person seeks information. For example, Nicanor R in sector III seeks information from Jesus V in sector II who in turn gets information from Juan de Dios Y. When information is exchanged, the arrows point in both directions. In sector I, Juan de Dios Y and Emilio X exchange information. The diagram also shows that Juan de Dios Y is the primary node in the community. Almost all the other experts are connected to him through networks of communication and depend on him for forecast information.

The primary nodes are persons over 60 yr of age who devote themselves totally to agricultural activities. While most families are involved in other incomegenerating activities besides farming, the primary nodes are not. In addition, the local experts dedicate themselves more to potato production than many of their neighbors. In fact, they are recognized as the most knowledgeable potato producers of their communities. Their expertise in potato production is what validates their expertise in weather forecasting. Interviews with the six primary nodes revealed that none used scientific forecasts in their production decisions and only one, a retired extension worker, used information coming from the Ministry of Agriculture.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. The most startling finding is the lack of connection between producers in the Altiplano and the scientific forecast community in spite of the latter's efforts to disseminate their forecasts. Forecasters are devoting significant time and resources to improve the efficiency and quality of forecast communication with mass media, extension agents, and local governments, but none of these agencies is used as information sources by local decision makers. In other words, the current strategies for forecast communication are based on the faulty assumption that mass media, extension agents, and local government officials are part of the communication networks that farmers use. This connection does not exist.

Until there is a connection between forecasters and producers, there is no realistic way to evaluate the effectiveness of forecast products and the efficiency of their communication. When links exist, it is possible to use methods such as those outlined by Ziervogel and Downing (2003) to improve the quality of forecasts. At this point it is difficult to ascertain why there are not any contacts between local opinion leaders and the outlets that are targeted by forecasters. It is not for lack of interest on the part of producers. Forecasts play an important part in cropping decisions, so it would seem that farmers would seek out all possible sources of information.

A number of conclusions can be drawn from this study. First, to date, scientific forecasts are not being used by Andean producers. This suggests either that the nature of the forecasts is inappropriate or that the message is not reaching the appropriate people. These people would be the local experts. Because these experts are excellent potato producers, they are the people who are relied on to convert climate forecast information into production decisions. The fact that only a few experts used fertilizers or improved varieties but that all obtained significantly higher yields than their neighbors suggests that they have a high degree of skill in addressing the risks posed by climate and weather variations. These are people who do not currently have much contact with government agencies or extension agents.

Second, traditional forecast knowledge is widely dispersed and understood. It is not secret or disappearing knowledge held by a few aging experts as has been observed elsewhere (Taddei 2005). Virtually all farmers understand the traditional forecast indicators, but they depend on the observations of experts and on their interpretations of conflicting indicators. Producers and experts today have less confidence in these indicators than they did in the past. For that reason there is a strong demand for additional forecast information- a demand that is not being filled by scientific forecasts to date. However, there is an opportunity for collaboration between local experts and meteorologists in the development of better forecast communication.

Finally, it is likely that the notion that forecasts are only valid for the place where the forecaster is living is a principal reason for ignoring forecasts broadcast through mass media or official channels. This means that a forecast emitted on a radio station located in La Paz can, at best, only have validity for La Paz. This notion may have some empirical basis in a variety of microclimates that exist in the Andes, but at the same time, the Altiplano is relatively homogenous in terms of topography and rainfall. Work on downscaling in collaboration with local experts changes this as could educational programs aimed at local experts. These educational programs can be developed through collaborative workshops involving meteorologists and local experts.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. Funding for this research was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs through Grant NA96GP0239, and by the U.S. Agency for International Development's SANREM CRSP program through Grant EEP-A-00-0400013-00 CFDA98.001 #19228-42632. We would like to thank the Forecast Communication Networks in the Andean Altiplano. We would especially like to thank Rigoberto Espejo, who helped in the data collection and network analysis, and Lloyd Weber, who produced our map. We would also like to acknowledge the collaboration of Christian Jette of the United Nations Development Program, Roberto Quiroz of the International Potato Center, the staffs of Fundaci�n PROINPA and CIRNMA, and also the personnel of SEHNAMI in Peru and Bolivia for their collaboration and assistance.

[Reference]

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[Author Affiliation]

AFFILIATIONS: Gibus - Department of Rural Sociology, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri; Valdivia - Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri, Columbia, Missouri

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Jere Gilles, Department of Rural Sociology, 226 Gentry Hall, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211

E-mail: gillesi@mlssouri.edu

The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of contents.

DOI:IO.I175/2008BAMS2I83.I

In final form 19 July 2008

�2009 American Meteorological Society